Carman Allison, vice president of thought leadership at Nielsen IQ in Toronto, describes the unusual combination of slow growth and job gains set against rising interest rates and sharply higher inflation as a “consumer recession.”
“We are all trained to understand that you need two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction for a country to be officially in a recession. But we also know that by the time that actually happens, a lot of the economy is already in a recession,” he explains.
| The International Tea Academy Awards its First “Leafies” | Sales of Herbal Infusions are Expected to Double this Decade
| PLUS Canadian Economist Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, sees a lot of positives for the tea industry but cautioned that inflation is an economic disease that will linger. Supply chain challenges remain. He said the macro-dynamics around commodities are getting more complicated, adding, “The fall is not going to be an easy one.”
US retail sales rebounded sharply in May, according to preliminary figures released by the US Census Bureau. Total retail and food services sales amounted to $485.5 billion in May, up 17.7% from the previous month, but still 6.1% below last year’s May figure.
Retail Rebounds
Tea wholesalers report foodservice customers are once again placing orders. Iced tea, a seasonal favorite, is in demand. Online sales that spiked amid the lockdown remain at higher levels than the first of the year.
The sales slump that began in March is easing. Still, inventory packaged for foodservice customers remains high and, unlike pent up demand for fashion, household furnishings, and other non-essential products, the food and beverage category is regaining traction slowly, in fits and starts.
Food sales did not decline during the scariest months of the pandemic ? everyone must eat. Grocery sales grew 33% overall, leading all traditional channels in dollar sales growth, with the food and beverage category up 32.5% compared to the previous year, according to IRI, a Chicago based market research firm. The purchase of food online increased by 49.7%. The question now is how soon consumers will begin dining-in, re-inflating the $181 billion on-site beverage category that includes tea.
Market research shared by Datassential indicates millennials are leading the way back to dining-in at restaurants but the majority prefer drive-thru and curbside pickup, and contactless delivery.
Datassential managing director Jack Li told webinar participants that consumer fears are abating. “Coronavirus concern is way down from its peak, closer to early-pandemic levels,” he said. In April at the height of lockdowns, infections, and COVID-19 deaths, 67% of consumers said they were “very concerned,” about dining-in and 28% were “somewhat concerned.” By mid-June, the combined 95% who earlier said that they were concerned had declined to 86%, but with 44% still “very concerned.”
How this fear translates into behavior is critical to the tea industry. Beverages generate about 20% of restaurant sales but constitute far less of the transaction price when consumers place orders for curbside pickup, takeaway, or delivery. When ordering food to eat at home, consumers raid the fridge for their favorites. Beverages maintain their important slice of the transaction when customers order takeaway for office breaks and visit drive-thrus when food is consumed in the car.
Datassential found that avoidance of dining-in is inching down, but slowly. As restaurants began opening their dining rooms in May and early June only 22% of consumers said they have “no concerns whatsoever” about dining out. Almost half, 47% say they will “definitely avoid eating out,” a total that has increased 2% since June 5. Another 31% say they are “nervous but will still eat out.” Boomers, at 59%, are the most fearful. Those in the Gen Z cohort are the least fearful, with only 34% saying they will “definitely avoid” eating out. Datassential, in a survey conducted on June 9, found that 42% of Millennials will also “definitely avoid” eating out.
For now, health concerns remain the top priority, writes Li, “but economic worries have been rising” with 46% of the nation more concerned about the economic crisis (up 1% since June 3 and up 9% since April 7) compared to 54% of the 4,000 adults surveyed who say they are more concerned about the public-health crisis.
Breakfast: Deflated Daypart
Morning meals and snacks suffered the steepest transaction declines during the coronavirus crisis, according to The NPD Group. Millions of at-home workers agree on one thing: no one misses early-morning commutes enough to jump in the car and wait in line for breakfast.
The number of transactions at breakfast locations was down 18% the week of June 7 compared to the same period last year, according to Restaurant Dive. Lunch transactions declined by 11%, and customer transactions fell 12% at dinner during that same period, according to The NPD Group.
FSR Magazine reports that Revenue Management Solutions, using insights based on point-of-sale data, estimates total US breakfast traffic year-over-year slipped between negative 30–35%. Traffic has since leveled out around negative 15%. According to Datassential, customers’ trips to restaurants break down as follows:
Traffic by Daypart
Breakfast/Brunch
6%
Lunch
26%
Dinner
64%
Snack
3%
Late Night
1%
Source: Datassential
The reversal is dramatic as breakfast is the only restaurant daypart that has experienced sustained growth in visits during the past few years. In January and February with the nation at full employment, hundreds of thousands of workers visited quick-service chains every day, accounting for a 5% category growth during the past five years.
In a January press release, NPD reported Americans consumed 102 billion breakfasts and another 50 billion morning snacks in 2019. “The future of breakfast looks rosy too with forecast growth of breakfast goods,” according to the market researcher firm which published its “Future of Morning” study prior to the pandemic.
Sending two-thirds of the nations’ workers home dimmed that optimism in record time. Breakfast was the easiest meal to convert at home and suffered the steepest transaction declines as McDonald’s, Taco Bell, Dunkin’, and Burger King saw comp sales slump during March, April, and May. Wendy’s, which spent significant marketing dollars promoting breakfast, reported same-store sales finally turned positive the last week of May.
Breakfast is an important hot tea occasion. Gallup has monitored employee preferences on working at home for several weeks, asking workers, “if your employer left it up to you, would you prefer to return to working at your office as much as you previously did, or, work remotely a much as possible.”
No one knows the full impact of stay-at-home orders on buying behavior, but it’s clear that if half of the office workers no longer commute daily to offices on a fixed schedule, the morning routine will be altered for the duration of the pandemic — and likely forever.
Millennials Lead the Way
A majority of Millennials (60%) reduced their spending during the early months of the pandemic, according to a survey by Clutch, a B2B ratings and review platform.
Recession-wary after 2009, they contributed to an unprecedented US savings rate of 33% in April. Only 5% of Millennials reported spending more money than the previous month during March and April.
Food was the exception. Groceries were the top expense for 40% of Millennials, reports Clutch. Half the Millennials surveyed reported spending less dining out, but 50% say they are still eating takeout and ordering delivery. Only 28% have not used food pickup and delivery options since the start of the pandemic reports Clutch.
E-Commerce Sales Surge
The most popular product category purchased online last month was restaurant delivery or takeaway, boosted by a surge in restaurants offering curbside service.
E-commerce sales of food or beverages by American adults increased from 27% in February to 36% in April, according to Bizrate Insights.
The number of customers ordering food online is even higher among frequent internet users (61.5%), according to a consumer survey by Red Points on the “Impact of COVID-19 on Ecommerce Sales.”
In April, 44% of Amazon Prime members ordered food or beverages.
Mo Sardella, marketing director at GS Haly, told Forbes that online sales of specialty tea and herbs spiked during the early days of the pandemic.
“We have seen a huge spike in home tea consumption via grocery and online outlets. Our customers with a well-established online presence are doing exceedingly well,” says Sardella, adding that “customers saw between a 100% to 300% increase in online sales in April alone.”
Lockdowns Wind Down
Sixty-nine percent of restaurant units are located in geographies that permit some level of on-premise dining, and the number should increase to 74% in the week ending June 14, according to The NPD Group. At the height of the pandemic, only 25% were operating. Transactions at full-service restaurants were down 14% the week of June 7 versus a year ago, a 29% gain since April 12.
Quick service restaurants fared better during the pandemic “and continue to do so,” according to NPD. QSR transactions are down 13% the week of June 7, compared to the same period in 2019.
Now that restrictions are easing Millennials and Gen Zers, are eager to eat out for the social benefits and convenience. Datassential reports that 82% of Americans say they know which precautions to take and how to stay safe from COVID exposure, and 60% say “COVID safety precautions have become second nature.”
“Diners are excited to eat in at restaurants again, understand the importance of new precautions, and are willing to make the necessary sacrifices. Yet they’ll also be the first to tell you that seeing servers in masks and needing to comply with social distancing measures do not exactly allow them a complete mental escape,” writes Datassential’s Jack Li.
Tea Yields and Exports Decline
Local shortages of Assam tea for auction has increased prices 15% compared to last year. Growers there lost three weeks of harvest beginning in late March. Plucking was to resume April 12, but by then tea plants required maintenance pruning. Gardens that opened were restricted in how many workers they employ. The combination of these events will result in at least 140 million fewer kilos of tea and may discourage exports.
Meanwhile lockdowns that were previously lifted will be extended in the West Bengal tea lands as the coronavirus continues to threaten India. Rajiv Lochan, the founder of Lochan Tea, shared a local newspaper clipping describing a surge in cases in Siliguri, a center of tea commerce at the foot of the Himalayas.
Tea exports dipped 5.6% in the financial year ending March 31, known as AY 2019-20. The new AY 2020-21 began April 1. Volume fell to 240 million kilos from the 245.5 million kilos exported in AY 2018-19. Russia and the surrounding CIS countries remain the most significant tea trading partners, importing 47 million kilos in 2019-20. Iran emerged as second due to a sharp decline from 15 million kilos to 3 million kilos exported to Pakistan due to hostilities between the two countries.
Exporters told The Economic Times they are concerned Iran will purchase much less tea than last year due to deteriorating economic conditions in that country. Iran bought 54 million kilos of tea from India in 2019. Exporters say that volume could decline to 45 million kilos. Russia is also experiencing a sustained economic decline.
Postponed Chinese New Year purchases will drive this latest rise in consumer spending. Luxury items have been selling well since China eased restrictions. China’s unemployment is much lower than the US, which saw 1.5 million workers file for benefits in June, bringing the total to 21.5 million out of work.
Immunity is the Epicenter of Health Enhancing Foods
Water Works Wonders
Digesting Grubhub
Tea for the Front Line
“Now is the time to play the health card” I advised during a June 10 webinar on Tea Vulnerabilities hosted by the European Speciality Tea Association (formerly known as The European Tea Society).
Recent scientific articles* suggest that black tea polyphenols derived during the oxidation of tea catechins could potentially inhibit the ability of the coronavirus to replicate.
RNA replication in the coronavirus is a two-step mechanism that relies on the RdRP (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) protein to catalyse the synthesis of the RNA strand.
Authors of a March article in the Journal of Medical Virology conclude that “theaflavin could be used as a lead compound for developing a SARS?CoV?2 inhibitor that targets RdRp. However, the exact in vivo effect is still unclear, and further research is needed to confirm the mechanism whereby theaflavin target SARS?CoV?2.”
Medical researchers in Taiwan recently concluded an investigation of 720 compounds listed in the Natural Product Libraries for anti-COVID-19 efficacy. The list was narrowed to 10 compounds and mixtures that had strong potential for anti-COVID-19 efficacy, according to Dr. Bashar Khiatah. “The compounds that have been found to have an anti-COVID 19 effect are the polyphenols that are found in teas,” writes Amylee Amos, MS, RDN. These are found in black tea, green tea, oolong tea, and pu-erh. The most promising is Theaflavin-3,3? -digallate (TF3) which is converted from catechins during fermentation.
Researchers in 1998 found tea theaflavins completely neutralized bovine coronavirus and rotavirus infections. In 2005 Chinese researchers showed that black tea significantly inhibited chymotrypsin-like protease activity essential to virus reproduction. Recent in-vitro studies found TF3 completely inhibited COVID virus replication in cell cultures.
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) announced that it will study Theaflavins’ antiviral properties.
*View research paper abstracts and links at end of this report.
Immunity is the Epicenter of Health Enhancing Foods
The polyphenols in tea are known to boost immunity and combat inflammation. Health institutes worldwide have for several years recommended eating foods and beverages that reduce inflammation and naturally boost the body’s immune system.
Due to the pandemic this health message has captured the attention of consumers who are increasingly seeking out products to boost their immune system, according to a post-pandemic study by Unilever’s CMI U-Futures and CMI People Data Centre.
Unilever found that in the US the intake of vitamin supplements in March rose by 15% in the space of a month. In Brazil consumers are bingeing on vitamin c-rich fruits and in Japan, yogurt formulated to boost the immune system saw a spike in sales.
Just Food reports that in Israel, interest in immune-system supportive ingredients rose 66% in March. According to AI-focused market research firm Tastewise, “we expect the trend to continue to rise. Immunity, stress relief, medicinal benefits and more are all skyrocketing.”
In China, a post-Covid-19 study of consumer behavior by McKinsey & Co. found that 70% of consumers intend to “work to boost their own physical immunity by exercising more and eating healthy.”
A review of ingredients used by at-home cooks shows a preference for wholesome, lean foods which may be influenced by studies showing obese victims are less likely to survive COVID-19.
“The desire for health and well-being post pandemic is a consistent trend across all markets,”? Unilever concluded. Unilever CEO Alan Jope told analysts “anything that’s in the space of wellness – health and well-being – is going to enjoy sustained strength.”
Having an optimally working immune system is more important than ever. The way our body deals with an infection is influenced by many factors of which the nutritional status is a critical element,”? Dr Angelika De Bree, Unilever’s global nutrition director, explained to the The Food Navigator..
“Our biggest food brands offer thousands of products and recipes which are nutritious, affordable and made with sustainably sourced ingredients,” according to Dr. De Bree.
Tea is clearly the ideal beverage for the situation at hand.
“Our tea and herbal category delivers healthy hydration through Earth’s most sustainable plant-based drinks,” she said.
Water Works Wonders
The UK Tea Academy released a white paper describing “The Ultimate Ingredient for The Perfect Cup of Tea” – that being water.
“Water, which makes up to 99% or more of a cup of tea, is an often-overlooked ingredient that has a huge impact on the taste, aroma, and appearance of every cup. Following research of many different teas and many different waters, this paper finally provides the ideal water specification need to make the best brew,” writes Jane Pettigrew, one of three principal authors of the 12-page report.
The white paper highlights the key ingredients of water which impact the brewing process of tea. It also describes a standard water specification to create the optimal cup of tea.
Water used to brew tea has not been considered in the same way as water for coffee, according to the report.
If the ideal water is not used, the delicate notes of tea cannot be realized, resulting in a bad experience with even the finest of teas. Sadly, this leads to a lack of consumer confidence as well as misconceptions of how certain teas taste.
“A perfect example of this is green tea. It is very common for people to “think” that they do not like green tea, the opinion reached because the tea has been almost certainly made with unfiltered water, at the wrong temperature and over-brewed. The entire flavor profile is altered, often leaving the tea bitter and undrinkable. Brew a green tea correctly and the entire experience is worlds apart in comparison,” writes Pettigrew.
The report delves into the chemistry of water, describes the importance of removing chlorine and preserving the the buffer capacity of the water, a delicate balance of calcium and magnesium that defines ideal “hardness.”
Retailers and tea traders should view this work as an excellent resource and, like those in the coffee world, they should adopt a water standard when tasting tea.
The specification appears below.
Digesting Grubhub
European food delivery venture Just Eat Takeaway derailed what looked like a pre-destined Uber takeover of Grubhub this week.
In May San Francisco-based Uber Technologies was set to acquire Chicago-based Grubhub to become the largest online foodservice delivery firm in the US. Haggling over price, and the likelihood of antitrust scrutiny, killed the deal which was valued at several hundred million (Uber offered $62.50 per share).
In June, Amsterdam-based Just Eat Takeaway offered the equivalent of $75.15 per Grubhub share. Just Eat (UK) and Takeaway (The Netherlands) combined their businesses in April, and now control a huge share of Europe’s growing market for both delivery and food delivery software.
Packaged Facts analyst Cara Rasch said the deal “will allow Just Eat Takeaway to gain a larger footprint in North America, and diversify Grubhub’s business. Skip the Dishes, a subsidiary of Just Eat Takeaway, does a lot of business in Canada and could help the Grubhub brand expand more broadly through North America.”
“In the short-term, third-party restaurant delivery apps have a number of advantages over in-house delivery,” she explains. “They are convenient for consumers because they allow customers to order from a variety of venues using one application. They also can allow smaller businesses without the capital to invest in in-house development of effective online apps to expand their delivery services quickly in the wake of COVID-19, which has forced fast changes,” writes Rasch, but restaurants consider the commissions that third-party online delivery companies charge to be a burden. “If they don’t raise their prices for meals ordered via a third-party app, they are in danger of losing money in an already tight-margin business that has been threatened by lower overall restaurant sales during the pandemic,” she said.
The outlook for carryout and delivery is bright due to distancing guidelines that have shuttered dine-in service or forced restaurants to greatly limit their dine-in capacity.
Long term, “many restaurants are going to see the value of investing in an in-house system for delivery orders. Using a third-party company for ordering and delivery makes it harder for restaurants to develop a direct relationship with consumers. It is also challenging to ensure food quality since restaurants have no control over the food once it leaves the restaurant,” she said.
The Tea Spot launched its new Flu Fighter tea, a caffeine-free herbal blend that features functional ingredients, including astragalus, honeysuckle, organic licorice root, orange peel, tangerine peel, dandelion root, mulberry leaf, red root and organic ginger.
Flu Fighter Tea
The ingredients in the new Flu Fighter tea were chosen based on a recent medical report, published in Military Medical Research (Volume 7, Article Number 4, February 2020), on the diagnosis and treatment of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), where a combination of herbs and roots were used to support flu-like symptoms.
According to Maria Uspenski, founder and CEO of The Tea Spot and author of Cancer Hates Tea, many of the natural herbs in this sweet, nourishing tea were also used in ancient times to make wellness broths for recovery and building strength. And while the Flu Fighter tea is meant to be supportive and maintain wellness, it is not meant to treat, cure or prevent any disease or ailment.
“The pain and stress of the current pandemic has pushed The Tea Spot to think outside the box as to how we can help empower people to find and support better overall wellness,” said Uspenski. “The result of our efforts is our aromatic and medicinal Flu Fighter herbal tea, inspired by recent medical research. This supportive tea is intended to be used in combination with social distancing, good personal hygiene, sound diet, ample exercise and rest, while it encourages wellness and facilitates calm amidst the turmoil and uncertainty that’s happening around the world.”
The Tea Spot donates 10% of all profits in-kind to cancer survivors and community wellness programs. In May The Tea Spot donated 55,000 specialty tea sachets to first-responders in New York, California, and Texas.
Footnote: The US Census Bureau on June 8 announced a very helpful online resource for understanding and keeping up with the impact of COVID-19. Visit: COVID-19 Data Hub (https://covid19.census.gov/).
THEAFLAVIN REFERENCES *Jrhau LungYu?Shih LinYao?Hsu YangYu?Lun ChouLi?Hsin ShuYu?Ching ChengHung Te LiuChing?Yuan Wu |The potential chemical structure of anti?SARS?CoV?2 RNA?dependent RNA polymerase | First published: 13 March 2020 https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25761 Chen CN, Lin CP, Huang KK, et al. Inhibition of SARS-CoV 3C-like Protease Activity by Theaflavin-3,3′-digallate (TF3). Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2005;2(2):209–215. doi:10.1093/ecam/neh081 Clark KJ, Grant PG, Sarr AB, Belakere JR, Swaggerty CL, Phillips TD, et al. An in vitro study of theaflavins extracted from black tea to neutralize bovine rotavirus and bovine coronavirus infections. Vet Microbiol. 1998;63:147–57. Ksiazek TG, Erdman D, Goldsmith CS, et al. A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N Engl J Med. 2003;348(20):1953–1966. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa030781 Hegyi A, Friebe A, Gorbalenya AE, Ziebuhr J. Mutational analysis of the active centre of coronavirus 3C-like proteases. J Gen Virol. 2002;83(Pt 3):581–593. doi:10.1099/0022-1317-83-3-581 Leung WK, To KF, Chan PK, et al. Enteric involvement of severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection. Gastroenterology. 2003;125(4):1011–1017. doi:10.1016/s0016-5085(03)01215-0 Herold J, Gorbalenya AE, Thiel V, Schelle B, Siddell SG. Proteolytic processing at the amino terminus of human coronavirus 229E gene 1-encoded polyproteins: identification of a papain-like proteinase and its substrate. J Virol. 1998;72(2):910–918. Muhammad Tahir ul Qamar, Safar M. Alqahtani, Mubarak A. Alamri, Ling-Ling Chen, Structural basis of SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro and anti-COVID-19 drug discovery from medicinal plants†,Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis,2020,ISSN 2095-1779,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpha.2020.03.009. Zhavoronkov, Alex; Aladinskiy, Vladimir; Zhebrak, Alexander; Zagribelnyy, Bogdan; Terentiev, Victor; Bezrukov, Dmitry S.; et al. (2020): Potential COVID-2019 3C-like Protease Inhibitors Designed Using Generative Deep Learning Approaches. ChemRxiv. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.26434/chemrxiv.11829102.v2 Chen CN, Liang CM, Lai JR, Tsai YJ, Tsay JS, Lin JK. Capillary electrophoretic determination of theanine, caffeine, and catechins in fresh tea leaves and oolong tea and their effects on rat neurosphere adhesion and migration. J Agric Food Chem. 2003;51:7495–503.
The Kao Ting Academy in Jian Yang, Fujian Province celebrated International Tea Day with a demonstration of the ancient Song Dynasty preparation of powdered tea whisked in Jian Zhan tea bowls fired at a local kiln. Photos by Liu Linjiang and Ding Shuliang.
International Tea Day
Carpe Diem
The tea industry seized the day May 21, celebrating with authentic and meaningful exchanges of information globally in contrast to amped up marketing typical of previous years.
The inaugural UN sanctioned-event was grounded in the soil and the people who grow and process tea. Since the 1950s marketers, mainly in developed countries, have promoted tea during the year-end holidays, designating December 15 as International Tea Day. The effort was well-meaning but out-of-sync with traditional spring celebrations in tea producing lands.
Last week the world witnessed a confident and much better coordinated effort, as various tea associations, government tea boards, trading companies and educational institutions followed the example set by the FAO Intergovernmental Group on Tea (IGG). Due to the pandemic, many activities were conducted virtually. The overall impact was significant as media coverage carried the UN messaging.
Tijjani Muhammad-Bande, president of the United Nations 74th General Assembly, took part in an online session with 200 delegates from 20 countries. He said that “we must galvanize multilateral collective action to implement activities in favor of the sustainable production and consumption of tea and join the co-convenors and participants in raising the awareness of importance of tea in fighting hunger and poverty.”
Noting that 60% of tea is now produced by smallholders, FAO (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) pointed out that tea production and processing directly contributes to several of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including the first goal, the reduction of extreme poverty; Goal 2, the fight against hunger; Goal 5, the empowerment of women; and Goal 15, the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.
In Rome FAO director-general Qu Dongyu said that a more productive and resilient tea sector calls for better policies, more innovation, increased investments and greater inclusiveness in tea production and processing. This year’s theme is “Harnessing Benefits for all from Field to Cup.”
“Tea, as a source of employment and revenue, can help alleviate some of the hardships resulting from the current economic downturn,” he said.
China invested significant resources with regional festivals and a series of events at the Chinese Businessman Museum in Beijing. More than 50 industry groups took part.
Tea consumption has grown rapidly the past two decades and contributes to the financial well-being of millions. China benefited greatly from this growth. Regional activities included a stir-frying tea competition featuring Yuhua tea in Nanjing in China’s Jiangsu Province and a demonstration of the traditional Song Dynasty way of whisking powdered tea in Jian Zhan cups hosted by the Kao Ting Academy in Jian Yang, in Fujian Province.
Zhang Jun, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, said the inception of International Tea Day has given tea new life and vitality.
Events were promoted in several streaming videos with brilliant images such as the Food and Agriculture Organization’s “The Art of Making Tea” and the UK Tea & Infusions Association video: “Raising Our Cup to All Tea Drinkers”
The Tea and Herbal Association of Canada President Shabnam Weber hosted an all-day “Sofa Summit” that featured conversations with 21 tea experts, retailers, traders, and association directors across the globe.
China hosted a 36-hour live broadcast featuring 29 people from several countries.
Coordinated by the China NGO Network for International Exchange, events in Beijing brought together the China Culture Promotion Society, the Tea Road (China) Cooperative (TRC) and the China Chamber of Commerce of I/E of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-products (CFNA).
FAO formally commended the effort and Wang Shi, chairman of the China Culture Promotion Society cited China’s responsibility “to work with peers in the world to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the tea industry and exchange of tea culture. It can help to build a community of shared future for mankind.”
India announced a special auction organized by the Tea Board of India from tea plucked on Thursday by planters across the country. This special edition is limited to five packages in a lot with a maximum of five lots from each factory. Proceeds from the June auction will be shared with relief funds.
Messaging in every country amplified the global trend toward transparency. FAO organizers used the occasion for an honest assessment of tea industry opportunities, challenges and potential shortfalls.
“Tea can play a significant role in rural development, poverty reduction and ensuring food security in developing countries because of it being one of the most important cash crops,” according to the UN.
Joydeep Phukan, secretary of the Tea Research Center at Tocklai, in Jorhat Assam, formally proposed the UN initiative in 2015 and proudly carried it forward though the General Assembly vote in November 2019.
Angela Lansbury as teapots
Amanda@pandamoanimum posted a clever Twitter thread in tribute to Angela Lansbury and tea. The thread portrays the beloved actress in her many outfits, each meticulously matched with a tea pot. The effort was rewarded with 20,000 retweets and many many “likes” including my own.
The effort inspired others to post their favorite shot of Lansbury and a suitable teapot to share the spotlight.
India COVID-19 Update
The Indian Tea Association (ITA) estimates first quarter COVID-19 related losses will exceed $275 million.
Tea production declined by 65% in March and by 50% in April in Assam and West Bengal following a March 21 lockdown that stopped the harvest and led to transportation and logistics delays.
ITA, which represents planters, urged the federal government and state governments to provide financial support and relief payments. Growers are pressing for an increase in working capital. Operations resumed April 12 but with a limited workforce. Pruning overgrown bushes delayed plucking an additional two weeks. In the meantime, dry weather has lowered yields.
Production totals are 140 million kilos below normal output according to ITA. Export demand is increasing from key trading partners that include Russia, UAE and Europe.
This map shows relatively few cases in Assam as rural areas in general experienced lower rates of infection than crowded Mumbai, but that is changing as the contagion progresses and migrant workers return to their home villages. Sikkim, for example, only reported its first case last week and the rate of infection remains low in Ladakh as well as in the union territories of Goa, Puducherry and Dadra & Nagar Haveli. Maharashtra was the Indian state hit hardest by the coronavirus on May 23 the state saw a record of more than 3,000 new infections in the span of just 24 hours surpassing the mark of 50,000 cases.
Matcha in Demand
Matcha continues to experience strong growth and sales estimated at $2.26 billion by the end of 2025, according to market research aggregator Million Insights. The combined average growth rate during the five years beginning 2019 is 4.7%, according to the Matcha Tea Market report.
Rising demand for organic, natural and nutrient-rich products are likely to have a positive impact on market growth as consumers demand healthy beverages, containing vitamins and antioxidants.
The report claims that matcha “improves focus, calmness and concentration as well as it enhances metabolism, gastrointestinal functioning, immune system, natural detoxification and inhibition of cancer cells.”
Little of the tea is prepared in the traditional Japanese style of whisk and bowl. Dunkin, for example, introduced a stone ground powder produced in Nishio in Aichi prefecture. The tea is blended with milk (or plant milk) and can be served hot or cold. The matcha lattes were tested in Springfield, Mass., and Phoenix, Ariz., and rolled out nationally Feb. 26.
During the company’s the first quarter earnings call, Dunkin’ specifically mentioned matcha as a sales driver. Comparable sales declined for the three months ending April, but during the early weeks of the quarter comparable sales were up 3.5% “and were on pace to be the highest quarter comparable sales growth since 2013,” according to the company. “The increase in average ticket was driven by a favorable mix shift to premium priced espresso and cold brew beverages, including the launch of Matcha Latte,” according to the company.
In March YELP! marketers decided to find out what food and beverages people across the country were being delivered right now! Data scientists tracked how frequently a dish is ordered in each state relative to its popularity in other states.
“When we first looked at the results, pizza delivery reigned supreme, which is no surprise since it delivers well and it’s perfect for a family night in. However, we dug into the data to find the most uniquely popular delivery order in every state*, and that’s when things got interesting,” writes YELP!
Winners include a run on crayfish in Texas, poke bowls in Indiana, pad thai in Washington, sushi in South Carolina and naan in Wyoming but guess what topped the list of delivery orders in California last week? How about Michigan? and Hawaii?
Boba tea.
“What we found was a mix of delectable dishes and drinks that tell a story of how American taste buds differ from state to state and region to region,” according to the company.
*Samuel Hansen at Yelp! employed a natural language processing technique called term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF), which quantifies how frequently a dish is ordered in a state relative to its popularity in other states.
East Africa Update
Rwanda’s tea sector, largely spared from lockdowns, saw a marked increase in production during the first quarter. The harvest totaled 9,000 metric tons generating $27.6 million in revenue, which is up by 15% from the same period in 2019.
But there are still formidable challenges getting that tea to market.
East African tea growers truck tea destined for export to the auction at Mombasa. Kenya’s borders remain open during the coronavirus pandemic, but Tanzania and Kenya required each driver be tested before crossing.
The result offers a lesson in what can go wrong. A shortage of testing supplies and the sheer number of truckers led to delays that extended from hours, to days, to weeks. Few of those who were tested showed symptoms and none were quarantined while they awaited results. Unable to afford hotel rooms they slept in or under their trucks, cooked together and played sports to kill time. Some wore masks but many did not and very few practiced social distancing. During the two weeks ending last week 150 truckers crossing into Kenya at Namanga tested positive and were eventually ordered back across the border but by then they had infected hundreds of local merchants and fellow truck drivers.
The Washington Post reports that beginning this week, only drivers that have tested negative prior to arrival at the border will be permitted to cross. Uganda has since discovered dozens of infected truck drivers crossing from Kenya. Zambia closed its border to Tanzanian truckers. Kenya is the largest tea producer in the region at approximately 500 million kilograms followed by Uganda which harvests 60 million kilos annually; Tanzania at 35 million, Rwanda at 30 million and Burundi at 9 million kilos per year.
At the Mombasa auction Rwanda growers earned an average $2.68 per kilogram of tea last year, followed by Kenya growers who received an average $2.59, Burundi at $2.21 per kilo, Tanzania $1.36, and Uganda $1.21. The overall average price was $2 per kilo.
Kenya currently has 1,214 confirmed COVID-19 cases, according to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. There have been 51 deaths. Tanzania is reported to have 509 confirmed cases with 21 deaths. Rwanda has 327 confirmed cases with no deaths reported as of the second week of May.
Holiday Travel Restrictions Eased for Turkish Tea Growers
Climate dictates that Turkish tea be harvested in three flushes, unlike Africa, Sri Lanka, and Southern India where plucking continues year-round. Tea is grown there on sparsely populate hills facing the Black Sea where growers depend on seasonal labor.
This year’s spring flush was interrupted by a March 28 lockdown to prevent spread of the coronavirus. Fatma Genc, a researcher at Istanbul’s Marmara University, told The National, that 50,000 tea farmers were unable to prepare their fields for the harvest. Ramadan, which began April 23, complicated timing for Muslims.
“The failure to harvest this year will make it difficult to meet even domestic demand,” said Genc told the newspaper. “Tea prices, which have been hiked twice in a row this year, will increase even more if the producers cannot go to the field.”
This week farm owners and laborers from across the country were finally able to travel to northern Turkey on trips extending through the three-day Eid al-Fitr festival that follows the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Seasonal labor from neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan continue to face border restrictions leading to some creative solutions. The city of Findikli in Rize hired locals to harvest around half of the 30,000 metric tons produced nearby in an agreement that spans six months. Workers harvest for 10 days and while the leaves for the next flush are growing they complete municipal projects.
In Rize Province, the heart of the growing region, 16,000 laborers were given permission to travel between fields and home. The Provincial General Hygiene Council required testing at least one member of each family, about 6,000 in all. Screenings continue.
The provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin and Giresun produce around 260,000 metric tons of tea annually, most of it sold domestically. Turks consume an average 3.5 kilos of tea a year, more than any other country. While much of the tea is imported, a significant shortfall is expected due to rising costs and the fact that much of the domestic tea went unpicked. Caykur, the state-owned producer that supplies 60% of the country’s tea is running a deficit and facing additional costs due to the pandemic. Caykur purchases tea from 200,000 independent farmers.
Turkey has 157,814 confirmed COVID-19 cases with 4,369 deaths, making it ninth on the list of countries most impacted by the pandemic, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
Tea garden in Turkey’s Rize Province, along the Black Sea.
Robotic Waitstaff Serves Tea
Tearoom Robot Reduces Contact with Waitstaff Easing Customer Concerns
The Tea Terrace, a small London-based chain of tea rooms that was forced to close during the March outbreak intends to open this July with the assistance of family-friendly robots.
Forbes magazine reports that managing director Ehab Shouly found while surveying customers that fear of crowding and contamination by waitstaff were their greatest concerns. Spacing tables was a relatively simple adjustment but a previous experiment with automated service at the company’s Surrey tearoom proved prescient. Last July The Tea Terrace became the first restaurant in the UK and Europe to introduce a robotic waitress, named Theresa.
Theresa is summoned by guests using controls at the table. The robot responds to voice commands. Shouly has also introduced functional assistants such as Captain Tom, a bot that delivers up to four trays each with teapot, teaware, and food.
Modifications are underway to expand robotic services to all four tearooms which serve 200 to 300 guests per day on weekends.
Nepal Asks India to Resume Imports
Tea growers in Nepal are seeking the resumption of exports to India, according to Nepal’s Ministry of Commerce and Supplies.
India stopped importing tea the week of May 6 and has not responded to Nepali officials. Periodically India has shown its displeasure with Nepal by refusing entry of tea and other exports such as palm oil.
Purna Kumar Karki, president of Jhapa Tea Entrepreneurs Association, told My Republica that Indian authorities impose non-tariff barriers on Nepali products from time to time “for no reason.”
Sanjay Bansal, chairman of the Darjeeling Tea Association (DTA), recently appealed to West Bengal Chief Secretary Rajiva Sinha to regulate the sale of Nepal tea to save the Darjeeling Tea Industry. Darjeeling growers maintain that Nepal undercuts their unique tea which is protected with a global Geographical Indication certifying its authenticity.
Bansal told The Statesman Nepal did not impose a lockdown and growers there have been producing at a high rate since February. “These teas are ready and are in the process of being shipped to India through the Indo-Nepal land borders in West Bengal to be sold in the local markets by taking advantage of the absence of Darjeeling Tea in the market due to the lockdown restrictions,” said Bansal.
In a related matter, Federation of Chambers of Commerce & Industry, North Bengal (FOCIN), has requested Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to allow small wholesale and retail shop owners to open their establishments.
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