• | Rising Prices | Drenched

    Tea Industry News for the week of August 17

    • Rising Prices
    • Heavy Rainfall Wreaks Havoc
    • AVPA Entry Deadline Nears
    Tea prices on the rise due to domestic demand and pandemic-related shortfalls. In India the combination is impacting the availability of tea for export.

    A shortfall in domestic production amid rising demand is boosting tea prices to record highs in India.

    The Tea Board of India is reporting record prices at tea auctions. In Kolkata and Guwahati (Assam) prices are up INRs100 ($1.33/kg compared to last year. The price for CTC (crush, tear, curl), which is mainly used in making tea bags, recently averaged INRs 313.58 ($4.19/kg), up INRs129.99 per kilo.

    Prabhat Bezboruah, the chairman of India’s Tea Board, said that a 12% price increase might compensate for the 10% crop loss. Green leaf prices in Tamil Nadu also rose from INRs14-17 to INRs22 ($0.29) in August.

    Last week marked the fourth week of price gains in Mombasa, Kenya where the East African Tea Traders Association (EATTA) reports an average Ksh208 ($1.93) compared to Ksh194 ($1.80/kg) the previous week. Unlike India, where production has declined significantly, tea production is up 41% in Kenya due to good weather but is likely to plateau for the remainder of the year. Exports to primary trading partner Pakistan are up 14% and the UK purchased 66% more Kenyan tea than usual as a result of shortages elsewhere.

    In Japan, the newspaper Chunichi Shimbun reported record low prices for Kagoshima Nibancha. Sales by global tea firm Ito En, the largest tea company in Japan, decreased by 8.5% from February through April due to the coronavirus.

    “Tea auctions both in Shizuoka and Kagoshima declared that the price for second harvest tea was lower compared to last year. In Shizuoka, it is estimated that the price per kilogram for summer tea went down by 10-15% from JPY609/kg in 2019. In Kagoshima, the decrease is even steeper by 26% to JPY452/kg this year,” according to the Global Japanese Tea Association.

    Over the past decade, tea prices have ranged from a low of $2.19/kg in January 2009 to a high of $3.29/kg in September 2017, but the long-run average price has stood at $2.85/kg, according to the Economist Economic Unit (EIU).

    “Last year tea prices fell to $2.57/kg globally, due to ample supply, marking the weakest result since 2008. Although production prospects in most major tea producers are disappointing in 2020, weaker demand growth is likely to depress prices further,” according to EIU. Prices fell to $2.33/kg in the first quarter of 2020, which marked the weakest quarterly result in 11 years. “Although they rebounded to $2.57/kg in the second quarter, they remain 3% below year-earlier levels. We expect tea prices to average $2.50/kg in 2020. Even assuming that underlying conditions improve in 2021, we expect only a moderate rise in average prices, to $2.81/kg,” writes EIU.

    Sri Lanka also reports increased prices at auction with some record-setting buys, defying on first appearance the rules of supply and demand.

    Controversial Import Proposal

    As domestic prices surge, India is weighing the possibility of importing tea from Kenya and Vietnam. The government currently imposes a 100% tariff on tea imports which discourages imports.

    If the initiative advances, The Federation of All India Tea Traders Association (FAITTA) said that importing teas will be a one-time affair and that it will not push for imports in the coming years, according to a report in the Economic Times. FAITTA wants a one-year relaxation of tea tariffs.

    FAITTA chairman Viren Shah said, “Prices have gone up significantly this year due to a shortage of supply. But we are not being able to pass on the price to our customers because the economic situation in the country is not conducive to increasing prices. The pandemic has created economic uncertainty everywhere.” 

    The debate is heated. Tea landed in India to this point is for re-export, which is not available in domestic markets where it competes with locally grown tea. Re-exports total only 9-10 million kilos annually. Planters, represented by the India Tea Association (ITA), strongly oppose lowering tariffs even for a limited time.

    “We will move the commerce ministry with a request to stop the import of cheap teas if the traders try to do so,” said Vivek Goenka, chairman, ITA.

    The price of CTC tea has increased by 48% year-on-year making imports less expensive than domestic teas. Even with a 100% duty, imported Kenyan tea at $1.84 per kilo or Vietnamese tea at $1.50 per kilo would be less expensive than the average INRs305 ($4.07) per kilo paid for CTC at the Kolkata Tea Auction.

    India consumers purchase 1,100 million kilos annually. Much of this tea is from Assam and West Bengal where production is down 30% during the period January-July. Ultimately imports may be unavoidable as teas from overseas would stabilize domestic prices.

    Drenched

    Annual mean anomaly predictions for 2020 relative to 1981-2010. Ensemble mean (left column) and the probability of above-average (right column). As this is a two-category forecast, the probability for below-average is one minus the probability shown in the right column. Grpahics: World Meteorological Organization.

    Monsoons annually claim the lives of many tea workers and cause hundreds of millions in property damage. Ten days ago, 43 died in a mudslide that swept tea workers away in their sleep at the Kannan Devan Hills Plantations (KDHP) in Munnar, South India. Rescuers dug for two days but found no additional survivors amid the 20 homes that were lost. The garden employs 12,500 workers.

    In Kerala, lowland floods claimed additional lives. This spring India’s tea production fell 26.4% compared to last year due to a combination of flooding and coronavirus lockdowns. Assam gardens reported serious flooding in May, June, and July which is the top tea producing month.

    Indian Tea Association Secretary Sujit Patra, told Reuters that a recovery in crop totals was unlikely in the second half of the year. The shortfall has caused auction prices to rise up to a record average of IRNs232.60 ($3.12) per kilo last week, up 57% compared to the same period in 2019.

    This week in Yunnan China, 14 died and 20 are still missing following flash floods caused by Typhoon Higos. Landslides killed five. The storm forced the relocation of 34,900 residents and affected 1.1 million people, causing at least $450 million in damage, according to China.Org. After an extended drought, rainfall averages are up 12.5% year-on-year. Across China 200 have died in weather-related incidents this year which have caused $25 billion in losses.

    In July the Japanese island of Kyushu suffered severe flooding that damaged several tea farms. Production is down overall, in Shizuoka the normal harvest decreased by 20-30% from 7,616 metric tons in 2019, and likely will be the lowest since 1953, when the first of such data became available.

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts “high latitude regions and the Sahel* are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer” during the period 2020-2024.

    “Most of Eurasia, eastern USA and central Africa have been wetter than average, with southern Africa, eastern Australia, Indonesia, north-east Brazil, and western Europe drier than average,” according to WMO’s five-year forecast.

    “The annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C,” according to WMO.

    “The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere,” according to WMO, but “it is likely (~70% chance) that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

    Click here to download WMO’s 16-page global weather update.

    *The Sahel is the 1000-mile wide ecoclimatic and biogeographic zone of transition in Africa between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. Having a semi-arid climate, it stretches across the south-central latitudes of Northern Africa between the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea.

    AVPA Teas of the World Competition

    The deadline to enter the third annual Teas of the World competition, conducted by the Agency for the Valuation of Agricultural Products (AVPA) is Sept. 15, 2020. Prizes will be awarded Nov. 16 in Paris, France

    The competition is open to producers who benefit from recognition of their exceptional quality, helps producers stand out from others growing and processing tea, and encourages producers to explore new tea markets.

    The competition consists of “Monovarietal teas.” a category limited to Camellia Sinensis and “Infusions” which include beverages made with plants other than Camellia Sinensis including blends and favored teas.

    Download the AVPA Monovarietal registration form.

    Download the AVPA Infusions registration form.

    Judges evaluate gastronomic rather than standardized refereeing, seeking a striking rather than consensual sensory profile. “This is the first time that an independent body in a consumer country promotes the good practices of production and trade actors,” writes AVPA.

    Fees are €110 for individual producers, €550 for other tea professionals and €1,500 for collective organizations.

    Click here to review contest rules.
    Click here to see who won the 2019 competition.

    AVPA is a non-governmental, non-profit organization of producers and enthusiasts. The organization annually conducts four international contests in addition to evaluating tea. These include “Coffees roasted at Origin”, “Chocolates pressed at Origin” and “World Edible Oils.”

    Subscribe and receive Tea Biz weekly in your inbox.

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    Dan Bolton

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  • Need to Know | Export Values Declined in 2019

    Tea Industry News for the Week of May 11.

    • Tea & Tariffs
    • Export Value of Tea Declined in 2019
    • U.S. Consumers Remain Wary of Reopening
    • Tea is Piling up
    • Attend the SofaSummit on International Tea Day
    Global Tea Exports Declined 18.8% year-over-year in 2019.

    Tea Export Value Declined in 2019

    Logistical hurdles in tea producing countries greatly complicated export this quarter as demand declines and prices remain low. Recessions in Russia, Europe, and North America dim prospects of a profitable return for the export segment where sales have declined in value by an average 12.8% since 2015.

    The declared value of global tea exports depreciated 18.8% year-over-year in 2019.

    Sales from tea exports totaled only $6.4 billion in 2019, according to analyst Daniel Workman at World’s Top Exports. Tea shipments worldwide were valued at $7.3 billion five years ago.

    China, at $2 billion in sales, remains the leading tea exporter, accounting for 31.8% of total exports by value, up 13.5% compared to 2018.

    China faced several impediments to growth prior to the coronavirus outbreak but retained its rank as the top tea exporter globally in 2019. Green tea exports, the main tea crop, totaled 304,000 metric tons and were valued at $2.02 billion. The average price of exported green tea was $4.34 per kilo in 2019.

    China’s tea exports were generally stable and of improved quality, despite the U.S.-China trade dispute and uncertainties in the world economy, according to agricultural and trade officials. Tea exports to the U.S. in 2019 were down 5.1% to 15,000 metric tons, but this was easily offset by a 15.6% increase in purchases by ASEAN nations. The 23,000 metric tons sold to ASEAN countries was valued at $400 million, up 55.7% compared to 2018.

    China reported a 13.6% overall revenue increase year-over-year. Black tea exports were up 6.7% to 35,000 metric tons increasing in value by 24.5% to $350 million, according to China customs statistics. Black tea averaged $9.92 per kilo, up 16.72% year-on-year.

    Yu Lu, vice president of the China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products (CFNA) said the average annual compound growth rate of exports was 3% during the past three years. Green tea accounts for 82.8% of the total volume, which topped 367,000 metric tons last year.

    Trade with countries along the Belt and Road increased 4% last year, earning China $560 million, a year-on-year increase of 307%, according to Yu Lu.

    India exported $803 million worth of tea in 2019, up 4.6% compared to the prior year. India set a production record in 2019 growing by 3.8% thanks mostly to smallholders, but while volume reached 1,390 million kilos, the country accounted for only 12.6% of tea exports by value.

    Sri Lanka’s 11.3% market share by value and Kenya’s 5.7% share also contribute significant volume, but each saw steep declines in value as prices for cut, tea, curl CTC grades fell. During the past five years (2015-20), the value of Kenyan tea exports declined by 71.3%. During that same period, the value of tea sold for export by Taiwan increased 131.3%; sales of Japanese tea are up 59.6%, and the value of Chinese tea for export is up 46.5%, according to World’s Top Exports.

    Selling to domestic consumers is appealing in China and Japan, where higher prices are the norm, but India may benefit most from increasing domestic consumption.

    Tea & Tariffs

    The economic impact of the pandemic makes it unlikely that China will meet the expectations of a “phase one” agreement negotiated with the U.S. in January. As a result, U.S. President Donald Trump said he might initiate another round of tariffs targeting China.

    Or maybe, not.

    “I’m very torn, I have not decided yet, if you want to know the truth,” President Trump told reporters last week.

    On Friday, to keep what have been productive discussions on track, the U.S. Trade Representatives’ office released this statement: “In spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner.”

    In January, China agreed to a 2020 increase of $76.7 billion over 2017 imports. China has since purchased less than $25 billion of U.S. goods, which is a decline of 5.9% through April compared to 2019, reports Bloomberg. The 2020 goal is almost $200 billion in sales.

    U.S. trade plunged in March. Overall the U.S. bought 6.5% fewer goods than during the same period in 2019. Imports of Chinese tea through March 2020 declined 23% compared to the same period in 2019, according to the Global Agricultural Trade System database (GATS). Lower sales are due, in part, to a 15% tariff imposed in September 2019. The duty was later reduced to 7.5% in February 2020, but by then, many blenders had switched suppliers. During the first quarter in 2019, the U.S. imported Chinese tea valued at $32 million, a total that declined to $24.7 million during the same period in 2020.

    Volume is down 31% from 8.7 million metric tons to 6 million metric tons through March. China is predominately a green tea exporter, but volumes of every category slid, except organic flavored green tea.

    Jason Walker, marketing director at Firsd Tea in New Jersey, the U.S. offices of China’s largest tea exporter, writes that while “U.S. imports of Chinese black tea have generally declined over the past five years. More recently, the U.S.-China trade war and coronavirus pandemic have contributed to this slowdown. However, organic black tea imports from China have been rising, with a 66% increase in volume.”

    Since workers were able to return to the fields before April, tea production China was spared the pandemic-associated drop in yield experienced in India and Sri Lanka. Imports recorded during the first quarter include little of the spring harvest. Second-quarter statistics will be more revealing as they will reflect the logistical challenges that are still rippling through the supply chain.

    “Firsd Tea has been watching the activity at U.S. ports for indications of delays and disruptions. We have not seen any to date,” writes Walker. “In terms of containers leaving China, we have not seen any disruptions since normal business resumed around the end of February in China. At this point, China operations have implemented monitoring systems and PPE (personal protection equipment) requirements for workers. We are watching for indications of flare-ups, but so far, we don’t see evidence of another wave of infection,” writes Walker.

    Blenders initially found themselves racing to meet the demand for packaged goods, particularly private label for grocery, but orders for foodservice grades has virtually disappeared due to the unprecedented restaurant and retail tea closures. This alone will substantially reduce tea imports from every producing country.

    Specialty tea importers receiving Chinese tea this spring say that demand remains steady despite a three-fold increase in airfreight, which is a far greater expense than the 7.5% tariff.

    “Importers were working with a three-fold increase in air freight delivery in April. Rates are still high, but at least cargo is moving faster now,” writes Andrew McNeill with Seven Cups Fine Chinese Tea in Tucson, Ariz.

    China recognizes the desirability of retaining a presence in the U.S. market as Europe is likely to experience a more severe recession than the rest of the world. The European Commission last Wednesday released projections that show economic activity shrinking by 7.4% in the 27-nation bloc, according to the New York Times. Economists predict the deepest economic recession in EU history.

    While the U.S. administration is angry at China, the escalation of retaliatory measures challenges the prevailing business assumptions guiding American companies in China. U.S. companies invested $14 billion in new factories and other long-term investments in China last year, according to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the Rhodium Group, a consultancy that tracks foreign direct investment flows.

    Shawn Donnan, writing in Bloomberg Supply Lines, suggests, “it’s worth remembering every so often that it is still businesses and not governments that really make the decisions that drive globalization and supply chains and that they aren’t decoupling yet.”

    Reenergize Local Consumption

    Pradyumna Barbora, a specialty tea producer in Assam, points to a straightforward solution: Increasing average per capita consumption from 750 to 800 grams will “uplift the Assam tea industry,” he writes.

    “If every tea lover in the country increases their consumption by a mere 50 grams per month, and starts sourcing their tea locally, the gardens will be able to meet their expected minimum wages whilst creating a better living environment for themselves,” writes Barbora, spokesman for Tea for Unity, a group of Assam planters. “We are losing focus on a high-quality heritage product which fetches much more and is more valuable than commercially mass-produced tea,” writes Barbora. The tea industry employs more than a million workers,” he explains, “Investment will improve the mindset of the workforce, translating into greater efficiency and quality.”

    Learn more: Tea for Unity

    Tea is Piling Up

    Processed tea is piling up as demand declines, and transport is interrupted. Globally, warehouses usually empty by the start of the spring harvest. An abundance of tea stored in 2019 is compounding problems in India. Consider the 21 villages in Champawat, a tea-growing region where warehouses are bulging because drivers are not permitted to travel.

    Tea, valued at INRs360,000 ($4,700), was ready to be sent for auction in April, “but we have not been able to transport it due to the lockdown. If the stock is not sent to Kolkata soon, those involved in tea plantation and its selling may face a financial strain,” Desmond Brikbeck, manager of several local tea gardens, told the Times of India.

    U.S. Consumers Remain Wary of Reopening

    Datassential continues its weekly series of webinars tracking consumer behavior during the pandemic. The COVID-19 series is free and hosted by managing director Jack Li, whose company pioneered the use of menu data to predict flavor trends.

    The topic May 8 was “The Next Phase” (download PDF).

    Reopening is underway led by Starbucks, which announced that 85% of its corporate stores would soon resume operations.

    Li notes that concern has declined somewhat as some states reopen, “but America is still anxious, with slightly more than half of the people feeling very concerned and hugely worried about their own personal health.”

    “Avoidance of eating out is steady, but down from a month ago with 55% of those surveyed saying they will “definitely avoid going out” and 27% saying they are “nervous but will still eat out.” The number of individuals reporting “no concerns whatsoever” increased to 18%, up 2% since April 27 but down 23% since March 10, according to Datassential.

    Health remains the top concern, but economic worries are intensifying, according to Li, who found that 57% of respondents are more concerned about the public-health crisis (down 2% since April 27 and down 6% since April 10). Those who say they are most concerned about the economic crisis increased 2% from April 27 to 43% of respondents.

    “Not much has changed in the past month. America is still at home and still longing to get back out,” writes Li. “People are excited to get back to activities like dinner and a movie, or lunch and shopping at the mall,” he said.

    When asked: “Which of the following food & drink places or activities are you most excited to get back to?” 45% selected “dining at my favorite sit-down restaurant,” and 42% selected “visiting recreational places” with 39% longing to “meet family and friends at restaurants.”

    Going to coffee shops (20%) and drinking at bars (19%) ranked in the middle. Visiting nightclubs, concerts, and lounges appealed to only 10%. Visiting cafeterias (5%) was the least exciting activity.

    Editor’s note: Unemployment increased to 14.7% in April, the highest since the Great Depression. New claims topped 26.5 million during the five weeks ending April. The proportion of employed working-age adults (51.3%) is the lowest on record. Datassential found that 16% of survey respondents are still going to school or working as usual, with 16% stuck at home due to layoffs and furloughs. An additional 33% of those taking part in the weekly survey are working or attending school remotely, with 35% not working overall.

    Next episode: “What Consumers Want Right Now.”

    EVENTS

    Attend the SofaSummit on International Tea Day

    Thursday, May 21, is International Tea Day, a global event declared by the United Nations that will, for the first time, be celebrated in every county. The U.N. organized the event to elevate tea by drawing attention to “the importance of tea for rural development and sustainable livelihoods, and to improve the tea value chain to contribute to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

    To celebrate, the Tea & Herbal Association of Canada, in coordination with many prominent industry leaders, is hosting an all-day tribute May 21, beginning at 9 a.m. through 7 p.m. EST. The tea and chat will “circumnavigate the globe,” spanning 14 time zones with participants from 13 countries. Watch on YouTube live – no registration required.

    Shabnam Weber will host on THAC’s YouTube Channel: http://tiny.cc/gyqdoz

    Click to learn more: International Tea Day.

    UK Tea & Infusions Association

    Raising Our Cup to All Tea Drinkers

    The

    Participants (in order of appearance) include:

    Yu Lu, China Chamber of Commerce CCFNA

    Rajah Banerjee, Makaibari

    Arun Singh, Tea Vision

    Ketan Patel, Jalinga Tea

    Stephen Twining, Twinings

    Alfred Njage, KTDA

    Cindi Bigelow, Bigelow Tea

    Gabriella Lombardi, Cha Tea Atelier

    Joyce Maina, Cambridge Tea Academy

    Will Battle, Fine Tea Merchants

    Joe Panter, Camellia PLC

    Ramaz Chanturiya, Tea Masters Cup (Russia)

    Carolina Okulovich, Don Basilio

    Rona Tison, ItoEn

    James Norwood Pratt, Author

    Jane Pettigrew, UK Tea Academy

    Kevin Gascoyne, Camellia Sinensis

    Jeff Fuchs, Tea Horse Road

    Tania Stacey & David Lyons, Cuppa Cha & AUSTCS

    Cecilia Corral, Tian Té Mexico

    Fred Yoo, Myung Wong Cultural Foundation

    *Corrected 9/13 to clarify this event was organized solely by the THAC.

    Virtual Tea Tasting

    The Ceylon Artisan Tea Association is hosting its third in a series of virtual tea tasting webinars. Amba Estate was featured on April 30. This week features Forest Hill Tea, which was recently profiled in Tea Journey magazine.

    Click this link to join the meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9997849844

    Meeting ID: 999 784 9844

    The Zoom event begins at 5.30 p.m. Wednesday, May 13 in Colombo Sri Lanka (India|Asia) | 8 a.m. EST (New York) | 1 p.m. (London) | 2 p.m. (EU) | 8 p.m. (Singapore and Hong Kong) | 9 p.m. (Japan and Korea)

    If you miss the live event, recordings of these webinars are available for viewing at no charge.

    Enhance your well-being with tea. Tea Journey is a bridge connecting those who craft handmade teas in 35 countries with the growing number of premium tea consumers globally. Tea Journey educates readers not only in the selection and preparation of healthy whole leaf tea but also in the manufacture of authentic teaware and utensils designed to enhance the tea experience.

    Curious about tea? Subscribe free to Tea Journey Magazine

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    Dan Bolton

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  • Need to Know | Ominous Fiscal Impact

    Tea Industry News for the Week of May 4.

    • Ominous Fiscal Impact
    • Online Grocery Orders Up 37%
    • Tea Supply Not a Grave Concern
    • Post Offices on the Front Line
    • Seattle Caps Delivery Commissions
    Which are you more concerned about: The Economic or Public Health Crisis?

    The pandemic is advancing the role and reputation of specialty tea in protecting the health and enhancing human immunity. At the same time, the economic impact threatens every link of the tea supply chain.

    Marketers are wise to address health over wealth.

    Consumer marketing surveys in several countries, as well as professional opinion research, indicates a “high level of concern” about becoming infected.

    Last May, “health care emerged as the top policy issue for American voters at 36%,” according to Real Clear Opinion Research. Concern about the economy was the top issue for 26% of respondents. Health concerns are now top-of-mind for 66% of respondents in the U.S., according to the Edelman Trust Barometer.

    Edelman surveyed a representative sample of adults in 11 countries. In Canada, the United Kingdom, and France 70% or more of respondents favor prioritizing health concerns. In Japan, 76% of those surveyed by Edelman cited health concerns.

    “A substantial majority of people around the world want their governments to prioritize saving lives over moves to restart economies being hammered by measures aimed at halting the spread of the new coronavirus,” according to the Financial Post,

    Overall, 67% of the 13,200-plus people interviewed between April 15 and April 23 agreed with the statement: “The government’s highest priority should be saving as many lives as possible even if it means the economy will recover more slowly.” One third said it is more important that governments save jobs and restart the economy.

    Only 29% of those surveyed agreed that CEOs and business leaders were doing an “outstanding job” meeting the demands of the moment.

    “It’s complicated because you have two crises simultaneously – a health crisis and an economic crisis,” said Richard Edelman, CEO of Edelman.

    “Business will be looked at very closely in the months ahead,” Edelman said, citing how companies perform in areas such as retaining and reskilling workers or using small businesses in their supply chains.

    Between February and March 2020, total retail sales in the United States fell by 8.7%. During this period, retail sales of food and beverage stores grew by 25.6%.

    Dramatic Drop in Economic Activity

    Economic activity dramatically declined in late March, and consumer confidence plummeted in April as jobless totals soared.

    In April business activity at service companies fell to the lowest level recorded. The near-collapse in the service side of the economy has dragged the U.S. into what’s all but certain to be a deep recession. The government has rushed to aid hundreds of thousands of desperate companies with loans and other help, but it’s unclear if it will be enough, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

    In tea retail, suppliers that rely on foodservice sales are the segment most impacted. Blenders in the grocery segment are still playing catchup to the stocking-up rush that is now decreasing.

    Sales of tea in grocery and convenience will plateau until pantries empty. A fundamental shift away from traditional trips to the grocery store is underway, led by those who order online. Online market research specialists Brick Meets Click found that April sales of groceries sold online grew by 37% to $5.3 billion. Forty million Americans ordered groceries online in April, increasing both frequency and spend, according to the results of a natural consumer survey. Orders increased from 1.2 to 1.6 per month and spend rose to an average $85 per order, up from $82 in March

    The April wave of surveys looked at two additional factors to help us understand the health and economic motivators impacting shopper’s behaviors writes Brick Meets Click.

    • Health: 47% of the households surveyed indicated a “high level” of concern related to catching/contracting the Coronavirus.
    • Economic: 39% of the households surveyed indicated that their average monthly household income since the COVID-19 crisis started had dropped dramatically – 25% or more – compared to Jan/Feb 2020. 

    Reopen Now or Not?

    In the U.S., where the contagion has killed more than 70,000 people, about half of the states are easing restrictions on business.

    Retailers considering reopening should bear in mind that most Americans are not ready to risk infection by going out. While 56% say they are comfortable making trips to the grocery store, 78% indicate they would be uncomfortable eating at a sit-down restaurant. “People in states with looser restrictions report similar levels of discomfort as this in states with stricter rules,” according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll conducted last week.

    In announcing plans to ease the restrictions on businesses, governors have emphasized that their actions represent a gradual and cautious reopening of their economies. Nonetheless, when asked about eight different types of businesses, majorities of Americans say they oppose ending the restrictions on each of the eight.

    “Fear of infection, the poll finds, has not abated at all in recent weeks,” according to the Washington Post.

    Datassential polls 1000 consumers weekly, beginning in March. The chart below suggests consumer fears have plateaued with 94% either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned.” Only 6% say they are not concerned.

    Note to Brands

    Consumer sentiment is clear: Businesses have a responsibility to ensure their employees are protected from the virus in the workplace and do not spread the virus into the community (78%). They want businesses to focus on solutions, not selling. In a survey of 12 countries, many consumers indicated businesses should shift to producing products that help people meet the challenges (89%). One in three (33%) say they have convinced other people to stop using a brand “that I felt was not acting appropriately in response to the pandemic.”

    Brands must do everything they can to protect the well-being and financial security of their employees and their suppliers, even if it means suffering big financial losses until the pandemic ends. – Edelman Trust Barometer 2020

    Tea Supply is not a Grave Concern

    Lockdowns in tea producing countries are gradually easing, permitting the harvest to resume, but logistical hurdles are mounting as the cost of airfreight, the preferred method of transport early in the season, tripled. The availability of cargo space on aircraft is greatly limited due to the virtual absence of commercial flights. Overburdened carriers are increasingly tasked with flying far more precious or urgently required goods. In India, the national rail service is shut down and trucking fleets are idle.

    Containers are piling up at ports, and ships lie at anchor awaiting medical clearances.

    Available airfreight on passenger planes in March was down 44% globally compared to the same period in 2019. Dedicated air freighters added more flights, but overall capacity was down by 25% in March, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    The cost of air freight from China to the U.S. increased from $3 per kilo in March to $11 per kilo in April and continues to climb.

    Paul Golland, owner of P.G. Logistics, a freight-forwarding business in Australia, told the Wall Street Journey that. “You used to get a quote valid for 30 days. Now you’re getting it valid for 24 hours, because tomorrow the situation may change again.”

    “International postal services have been among the hardest hit. Many have reduced or suspended international mail in recent weeks due to a lack of flights,” according to the article. The U.S. Postal Service last week said it would start shipping mail by sea to 10 European countries.

    In India, Amazon and Walmart are restricted from making deliveries except for food and medicine, which greatly increased the workload for that nation’s 400,000 postal workers in 150,000 branch offices. About the only service tea vendors can count on is mail delivery. India operates the largest postal service in the world and is rising to the challenge. As the Wall Street Journal reports, “courier competitors can’t deliver. They depend on commercial flights and trains, which aren’t running, their truck fleets aren’t allowed on their roads, and their employees can not get to work.”

    U.S. Postal Service employs 633,000 in 32,000 post offices, annually delivering 142 billion pieces of mail. But in April, due to the Coronavirus, Postmaster General Megan Brennan told Congress that volume declined by a third and is expected to fall by half by the end of June. E-commerce is surging, but bulk and business mail account for far more business. Postmaster Brennan estimates the shortfall at $25 billion.

    The Human Condition

    Datassential reports that only 15% of Americans are still going to school or working as usual. There are now 17% stuck at home due to layoffs and furloughs. An additional 37% of those taking part in a weekly survey are working or attending school remotely, with 31% not working overall.

    “While most Americans are apprehensive about the reopening of non-essential businesses, they favor people visiting open-air locations like parks and beaches, where they can keep social distance. As you might expect, people who are currently more concerned about the economic crisis are much more accepting of visits to all types of venues than those more concerned about public-health implications. Having guidelines in place for reopening and familiarity with grocery store precautions have likely also paved the way for other retailers. One-third of Americans are OK with visits to places like shopping malls, hair salons, and restaurant dining rooms,” according to Datassential.

    Jack Li at Datassential is optimistic that restaurants will remain a vital part of social life after the crisis eases: “People miss dining in restaurants, not just for the food, but also for the psychological benefits. When dining rooms reopen, there will be a heightened appreciation for them and the sense of normalcy they evoke. Americans associate dining in with better pre-COVID times and happy “milestone” celebrations. Restaurants will also provide an opportunity for people to do their part and reconnect with their communities.”

    How soon will this end? Simon Baptist, Chief Economist at EIU, writes that “even in countries where containment measures are being eased, economic activity will be slow to pick up. For instance, even though India partially eased restrictions on April 20, high-frequency data on electricity consumption shows no change in demand from the week before.

    Delivery Fee Caps

    Last week Seattle instituted a local ordinance capping third-party delivery service commissions at 15%. The intent is to address price gouging during lockdowns temporarily. Violators are subject to prosecution by the Seattle City Attorney’s Office and face steep fines. San Francisco is enforcing a similar ordinance capping service commission at 15%. Chicago and New York City are also considering enacting commission caps. In New York, the proposed cap is 10%. The Seattle ordinance mandates delivery drivers get the full amount of tips and makes it a crime for third-party delivery companies to cut drivers’ pay. The ordinance remains in effect until restaurants are allowed to resume unrestricted dine-in services.

    Best Retail Practices

    • Daily wellness checks for all employees (back of store and front line)
    • Provide ample (non-medical) masks, single-use gloves and additional PPE as required (plexiglass cashier shields etc.)
    • Clean high-touch surfaces every two hours.
    • Encourage hand washing every half hour for food handlers.
    • Seal orders in packaging and do not let cashiers handle food.
    • Apply social distancing floor decals and display distancing reminders.
    • Make sanitizer available at checkout and in stand-alone dispensers at entry.
    • Avoid cash transactions and sanitize credit-card terminals after each use.
    • Disinfect entire store at the end of each day and schedule periodic deep-cleaning

    Encourage customers to order online and at digital kiosks. Avoid face-to-face interaction by offering carry-out, curbside pickup, drive-thru, and contactless delivery. Customers should insert their own credit card into payment terminals (and stores should opt for “tap to pay” where available). Rely on video and remote methods of communication to minimize consumer contact with store personnel.

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    Dan Bolton

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  • Service and Innovation

    Service and innovation differentiate tea retailers. At its core, specialty tea is a commodity since most blends use similarly sourced mid-grade green or black tea enhanced with ingredients and flavor.

    The lowest tier in the sector consists of tea-only blends that are bagged and retail for less than $300 a kilo. The entry point is $5 for 200 grams (equivalent to a 100 ct. box of 2-gram teabags) or $25 per kilo with many supermarket teas selling for $7 to $8 per box ($35-$40 per kilo). This tea costs $2 per kilo at origin and is blended with similarly priced teas for consistency. It costs $1 to ship a kilo to the U.S. and less than $1 to fill, tag and box 100 tea bags. Marketing established blends is a rising cost. Store-brand competitors pressure national brands but there will always be a place for bottom-shelf tagless tea bags selling around a nickel to a dime.

    The upper tier is loose leaf with fruit, spice and floral inclusions, pyramid bagged, gift boxed or in tins. A 25-gram pouch of specialty blend sells for $15, earning retailers $300 per kilo. Retailers get only 5-cents a tea bag selling Lipton but they sell a lot of Lipton. Nearly every home in the country has a nationally branded tea in the pantry. Fewer than one in ten are willing to pay $1 a tea bag for a foil-wrapped Tea Forté pyramid (with 4 to 6 grams of tea) but grocers selling Adagio, Rishi, Numi and Republic of Tea are getting $250 a kilo a ten-fold premium.

    The core component of these teas arrives in shipping containers warehoused and blended by a few gateway importers with entrenched (often family) supply chains originating in China, Taiwan, Japan, Sri Lanka, Kenya and India. Raw materials for blending are very similarly sourced and priced with tea often the least expensive component. There are an infinite number of blends and taste sensations but remarkably little variance in a warehouse stacked to the ceiling with four million pounds of tea.

    This is why service and innovation are critical to retail success. Service is the key point of differentiation. It begins with that first impression, the cold-call presentation that gives buyers a reason to believe that working with you as a wholesaler will benefit their business. There are often two or three wholesalers with identical price points pitching a retailer whose first concern must be to meet the needs (within limitations) of his or her customers. The fact that sales of these similar teas are growing is due to the nearly continuous introduction of new formulations and experimental blends and the presence of color, texture (chunks and leaves, not dust) and intense flavor (often added).

    This suggests the path forward is to innovate with taste and convenience foremost. Cultivate in those who show interest a more sophisticated appreciation of the profitable, highest quality teas. Tell the story, let them taste the tea. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. Retailer and customer advance in step with sellers bringing ever-larger numbers of specialty tea drinkers into the tent where a growing percentage of newly-converted tea lovers share and spread the joy of discovery after readily paying the always-reasonable price for the pleasure of a fine cup of tea.

    LinkedIN: Share you thoughts on the importance of service and innovation.

    —- Dan Bolton

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    Dan Bolton

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